The Earth’s temperature will rise by 3 degrees Celsius  

Decarbonization is very slow

The goal of the Paris Agreement was to keep the global average temperature below 2 degrees Celsius and strive for 1.5 degrees. Obviously this is a titanic task, since today humans release 15 billion tons of CO2 into the atmosphere annually, and carbon makes up 40% of these emissions. Once in the atmosphere, CO ₂ can stay there for centuries, trapping heat and changing climate on a global scale. Thus, it was decided to move away from fossil fuels and limit their use.

But new research says that even though we’re moving in the right direction, we’re doing it at the wrong speed. According to the numbers, we will far exceed the 2 degree Celsius limit and without massive changes, we will see 2.5 or even 3 degrees of global warming.

More and more countries are promising to phase out fossil fuels from their energy systems, which is a positive thing. But unfortunately their commitments are not strong enough. If we are to have a realistic chance of hitting the 2-point target, we must phase out fossil fuels faster and fossil fuel-dependent countries must increase the pace of their transition. – Aleh Cherp, Lund University, Sweden

The researchers analyzed the plans of 72 countries that have committed to phasing out fossil fuels by 2050. The likelihood of staying below 2 degrees is only found in the best-case scenarios, where China and India manage to decarbonize in five years. In the most realistic scenarios, global warming will reach 2.5-3 degrees.

Past increases in Earth’s temperature give us an idea of ​​what to expect with a 3 degree rise. The loss of Antarctic ice will raise sea levels by 20 meters, severely affecting coastal cities. A global increase in heatwaves, floods and severe storms will lead to food shortages and an increase in disease.

The commitments of the countries are not enough, not even among the most ambitious countries. In addition, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine complicates the commitments of many countries.

The research was published in IOPscience .