How many jobs are threatened by artificial intelligence?  

New analysis by Goldman Sachs

A new analysis by investment bank, Goldman Sachs, reveals that artificial intelligence could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs in the near future. This is equivalent to 1/4 of the jobs in Europe and the US, but at the same time it can mean new jobs and an “explosion” in productivity, which can lead to an increase in the value of goods and services produced annually by 7% .

According to the report, the ability of generative AI to produce content that cannot be distinguished from human content is a very important development.

So which sectors will be most affected? The report says 46% of administrative work and 44% of legal work will be fully automated, but just 6% in construction and 4% in maintenance.

The only thing I am sure of is that there is no way of knowing how many jobs will be replaced by productive AI. What ChatGPT does for example is allow people with average writing skills to produce reports and articles. So journalists will face more competition, which will drive wages down, unless we see a significant increase in the demand for this work. Consider the introduction of GPS technology into platforms like Uber. Suddenly, knowing the streets of London wasn’t worth as much and so skilled and experienced drivers saw big pay cuts of around 10%. The result was lower wages, not fewer drivers. In the coming years, generative AI will likely have the same effects on a wider range of creative tasks.

It is worth mentioning that 60% of today’s workers are employed in jobs that did not exist in 1940. But other studies note that the technological changes that have come since the 1980s have created fewer jobs than they have eliminated.

We don’t know how the technology will evolve or how companies will integrate it into the way they operate. This does not mean that AI will not disrupt the way we work. But we must focus on the potential for improved living standards from higher-productivity labor and lower-cost services, and the risk of being left behind if other firms and economies better adapt to this technological change.